Country Strategies towards High-Income Country: Policy Options and Driving Mechanisms

ชื่อโครงการ :

แหล่งทุน :

Wisdom Council Thailand (WCT)

ปีที่ดำเนินโครงการ :

2560

รายละเอียด :

It can be said that Thailand is currently trapped in the middle-income countries as it cannot transform the economy into an innovation-driven economy to sustain high economic growth. At present, there are many policy recommendations to drive Thailand towards a high-income country. Nonetheless, each policy option has different benefits and costs, and with limited resources, the country should have strategies for dealing with them. This research aims to synthesize the policy options for developing Thailand to become a high-income country, to prioritize policy options, and to find a proper set of policies. It also presents mechanisms for driving the policies into practice in order to make it most probable for Thailand to move to a high-income country.

The analysis of strategic importance of each policy option was conducted by assessing the impact size of the policy on economic growth, along with the assessment of the difficulty of the policy implementation, including the resources needed to implement the policy and the acceptability from different stakeholders. Tools used in policy impact assessment include economic models coupled with the review of diversified literature. The main model used is a Computable General Equilibrium Model, which is an economy-wide model with detailed elements covering major economic activities in an economy so that it can assess impacts of a wide range of policies. The assessment of the difficulty of the policy implementation is based on literature surveys, expert interview, and further analysis by the researchers. The results from the study make it possible to classify the policy into four groups. Practical policies for the quick-win policy group, the policy that has a high impact on economic growth and is not complex to implement, are then proposed as follows:

Increase investment on research and development (R&D) by conducting mega projects on R&D, adjusting production structure from OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturing) to ODM (Original Design Manufacturing) and OBM (Original Brand Manufacturing), and promoting angel fund and venture capital for R&D
Increase the quality of education by utilizing the information technology to provide all students the access to quality teaching, reducing unnecessary educational evaluation burden, encouraging market mechanism by reducing government roles in education provision and unlocking more educational choices, including switching educational subsidy from supply side to more demand side. Furthermore, promoting mechanism to increase the retraining for all workers is also needed to upgrade the workers’ skill continually.
Develop service economy by liberalizing several sectors in service sector to increase efficiency by increasing market players, promoting sustainable tourism, and moving labors from the agricultural sector to service sector.
Expand the export of agricultural products by diversifying the type of agricultural export products, enforcing the zoning policy, encouraging the switch to the products that have currently low production capacity but have high potential growth, negotiating free trade agreement to increase market access, and supporting funds to lift up the product standards to meet the export market standards.
Reduce logistic costs by pushing forward the transportation in rail mode and increase capability in inventory management.
Reduce import dependency by promoting alternative energy to reduce energy imports, enhancing energy use efficiency particularly the use of public transport. The development of capital goods industry is also encouraged to reduce import dependence of capital goods.